Illinois Valley News

Payroll employment in Josephine County rose by 280 jobs in May, according to the Oregon Employment Dept. (OED), but that still was not enough to counter an increase in the unemployment rate.

The county“s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate went from 14.1 percent in April to 14.5 percent in May, OED reported. In May 2009, the unemployment rate stood at 15.4 percent.

Around a third of the jobs added in May were due to temporary hiring by the federal government for the U.S. Census, OED said. The leisure-and-hospitality sector was up 140 jobs from April; construction rose by 30 jobs; and retail added 20 positions.

Despite those upticks, the county lost 610 payroll jobs throughout the past year. Without the Census hiring, OED said, the decline would have been closer to 700 jobs, as that caused federal government jobs to increase by 100.

The rise in construction jobs also does not offset the loss of 60 such positions during the past year.

Retail trade also is down 150 positions on the year, with the manufacturing and leisure-and-hospitality sectors each down 120. Health care and social assistance are down 70 jobs on the year, and the transportation, warehousing and utilities sector is down 40.

OED said that wood manufacturing gained 20 jobs during the past 12 months.

“Other than those wood product jobs, along with temporary Census jobs, no other published industries in Josephine County showed any significant employment gains over the year,“ OED said.

Neighboring Jackson County posted a 12.3 percent seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May. That is unchanged from April, and down from 13.2 percent in May 2009.

The state“s unemployment rate was 10.6 percent in May, unchanged from April and down from a May 2009 rate of 11.6 percent. National unemployment fell slightly from 9.9 percent in April to 9.7 percent in May. It was 9.4 percent in May 2009, according to OED.

OED“s Guy Tauer, who specializes in workforce and economic research for Coos, Curry, Jackson and Josephine counties, said that the construction, and leisure-and-hospitality sectors experienced less seasonal hiring than usual this year.

“The unemployment rate didn“t decline as much as it typically does in April and May,“ Tauer said. “Hiring, while we“ve had some, is not as robust as we typically see.“

He said that the county traditionally adds around 420 jobs for the summer tourism season. But he added that the construction sector remains soft, and that anxiety regarding the state, national and international economy still is prevalent among area firms.

“Employers are cautious about hiring in general, keeping their payrolls lean and probably not adding as many people as they would have otherwise if the overall economic conditions were stronger,“ Tauer said.

Also complicating the picture is the state“s $577 million budget deficit. In response to that, Gov. Kulongoski has used the allotment authority granted him by state law to order agencies to take 9 percent reductions.

Tauer said that move will “certainly keep state government payrolls at subdued levels. They won“t see increases in hiring. Positions that are vacant won“t be filled. There“s expected to be some job cuts as a result, but how that will play out is difficult to see right now.

“The Legislature can intervene and decide to reallocate the budget cuts where they see the need is the greatest to save money or preserve services.“

He added that it“s “likely“ that double-digit jobless rates will continue into the “foreseeable future, until employers start to feel that the recovery is stronger and they have demand for their services and goods.“

Some economic indicators are positive, though, leading to what Tauer characterized as “cautious optimism“ in some circles. Travel for the Fourth of July holiday is expected to pick up from the past few years, Tauer said, resulting in more tourism activity.

“People are getting tired of their third consecutive year of “staycations“,“ he said.

Manufacturing output for U.S. companies has been positive for the past eight months, Tauer said, which could prevent unemployment levels from matching their peak in recent years.

He continued that, “I don“t think we“ll see the raw rate return to the levels we saw. Unemployment rates had touched around the 15 percent mark, but nobody is expecting things to go that high There are a lot of factors that will keep us from seeing anywhere close to 20 percent unemployment. I don“t see that on the horizon.“

He said that while he does not immediately expect to see a 3 to 4 percent job growth, a rate of 1 to 2 percent is likely.

Elements of the economy that depend on the housing sector will continue to struggle, Tauer said. He noted that the latest national new home sale figure is “dismal.“ Those trends also are being followed at the local level, he said.

“The building permit data for Josephine County is still staying at quite low levels, basically equaling what we saw in 2009, which was the lowest level of building permits that we“ve seen going back 20 years or more,“ Tauer said.

All those factors will keep home construction pretty soft for the remainder of 2010.“

Because of demographic trends and the retirement and migration of Baby Boomers to the area, Tauer said that the health-services industry will recover faster than most sectors of the regional economy.

We want to hear from you!
Add your thoughts with the link below.

Comments returning soon!

Back to top of story